Please wear a mask. Please social distance. Please find a way to not spread the virus. All that really matters for Park City, on a number of levels, is Fall and Winter.

We spent the months of March, April, and May in lock-down to keep enough hospital beds available for the sick. Then we come out of hibernation in June and the numbers infected with Covid-19 are skyrocketing. Over the past three days, we’ve had the highest number of new cases since the pandemic began.

Why? Because many people don’t give a shit.

To those people who don’t give a shit, yes, the CDC and Fauci lied to you. Early on they said masks don’t help because they wanted to preserve the masks (that actually do help) for health care professionals. Then the Utah government chose the economy over health and pushed for reopening even though it could lead to a resurgence later (which appears is happening). And yes, the percentage of people dying from Covid-19 is less than 1% in Utah — which is lower than expected (but still sucks if it is someone you know.)

I grant you all that. However, the virus doesn’t care, and if infections continue to rise the State of Utah will have to make a policy response.

An internal memo, circulated Friday by The State of Utah Health Department, recommends going back to an orange level, if the average number of cases doesn’t lower to 200 per day by July 1. Right now, the average is over 400. I’ll include the memo below, but the highlights from the memo include:

• We are in the acceleration phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Utah
• Since going to yellow, we have increased our number of contacts/case from approximately 5 to over 20. For contact tracing to be effective as a tool to stopping the spread of COVID-19, it needs to be paired with policies that limit the number of close contacts per person. 
• IHC is reporting they will run out of conventional ICU capacity in some hospitals in July
• We have heard from the UHA, UofU, and IHC that hospitals are going to exceed their capacity to care for individuals within the next 4-8 weeks.
• [Utah needs to] mandate face coverings, either by government or business enforcement.
• If above isn’t reasonable, we need to be clear with public about why decisions are being made lessening restrictions – economic, not health.

I love that last one. I’d love to hear any politician actually say that, but it’s true. You can tell the Health Department is getting frustrated.

I know there are various opinions on this issue. Some think we should have never shut down the economy. Some people think the virus is all over-blown. Some people think we should have never opened back up. Some people are somewhere in the middle. I can see all sides on that.

Regardless, there are two factors at play here. One is policy response. The other is people response. What’s at stake is the school year and then the Winter Tourism season.

If we don’t get the numbers under control by late July, the Utah State Health Department is going to have to make rulings that impact our schools and thus us working parents. Policy is in play. It could be that some kids go to school Tue/Thur and other Monday/Wed. It could be half days where some kids go from 8 to Noon. Others go from 1 PM to 5 PM. It will be a mess for parents and it will seriously tax teachers. Most importantly, it will be detrimental to our kids.

Then as we approach the Winter, both policy and people are at play. Given how economically driven Utah is, it is unlikely they will shut down resorts. However, if corona-virus numbers are surging, they will likely put additional requirements on resorts. This could derail some plans resorts are currently making to maximize lodging, food-and-beverage revenue, and instruction.

Perhaps, more concerning is what is out of Salt Lake politician’s control… the people. If Utah numbers of infections surge into the Winter, the normal number of visitors are not going to come here, whether we are open or not. No amount of spin about Park City being an outdoor adventure-destination will be enough. People realize that they may spend 9 AM until 3 PM on the slopes but it’s probably not worth it unless you are willing to have lunch on the Mountain and then go out to dinner.

Yes, I know Deer Valley is thinking people are going to drive into Park City for the Deer Valley Experience. Deer Valley’s GM, Todd Shallan, recently said in the Park Record, “I’ve had conversations with people who have said ‘Well, if I can’t fly there from California, I’ll drive. It’s only 10 hours. And I’m going to be there for a week or two weeks, so it doesn’t really matter, I can drive,’” I’m not so sure.

Yes, people will drive from Draper, ski some, and then leave. However, that’s not the thing that supports Park City. If enough people aren’t willing to fly here because either they fear the virus on planes or fear the virus in Utah, then it will be a disaster for many businesses and residents.

Getting our numbers down is the best thing we can do, but we are headed in the wrong direction. About all we can do is wear a mask because the rest is out of our control.

So, please wear a mask. Even if you don’t personally think it helps you, it will help others. You may make it possible for school to be more normal next year. You may personally responsible for saving a local business.

If you do, you are paying it forward.

Please wear a mask!

Here is the memo from the State of Utah Department of Health:

19 June 2020
UDOH Epi COVID Brief

Overview:
We are in the acceleration phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Utah. We went yellow on May 15. Our surge in cases started on May 27, 12 days after going yellow. Utahns care about these colors. They change their actions based on them. They are the key messaging tool to the public.
All of our goals are aligned – keep the economy open and prevent deaths/ illnesses. We are quickly getting to a point where the only viable option to manage spread and deaths will be a complete shutdown. This might be our last chance for course correction. Contact tracing and testing alone will not control this outbreak.

Today, we reported nearly 600 cases and that’s without a known outbreak of driving transmission.

It’s over 3.5 times the current rate in Colorado.

COVID-19 patients in the Utah hospitals have increased from a steady 90 to 150 this month, and this increase is from the cases that were identified over a week ago.

IHC is reporting they will run out of conventional ICU capacity in some hospitals in July.

Of the cases, about 8 percent will be hospitalized one to two weeks later and about 1% will die after about three weeks. If trends hold, at the current weekly average of 405 cases/day:

This means around 213 people will be hospitalized per week.
Of those 213, about 85 will be previously healthy working age people. “Low risk” – taken from their family and work to fight for their lives in an isolated hospital room.

About 17 of the 213 will die – another 11 will die at home or in nursing homes. On average, per week, and it’s growing at a rate of 25% a week.

Things we can do now to start to decrease cases and keep the economy open:

If we do not reach a rolling 7-day average of 200/cases per day by July 1, we need to move the entire state to orange. This will send the message to Utahns that this outbreak continues to be a serious problem, and state leadership is committed to saving lives and preventing a complete economic shutdown.

200 new cases / day can likely be managed by aggressive contact tracing, focused outbreak investigations and testing, and pointed public messaging.

We should start messaging this to the public and businesses now.
Put a pause on any jurisdiction lessening restrictions until July 1.
Mandate face coverings, either by government or business enforcement.
If above isn’t reasonable, we need to be clear with public about why decisions are being made lessening restrictions – economic, not health. Be clear about health risk. Be clear about how these decisions are made and who makes them. This will better equip the public to make informed decisions about how to protect themselves and their health.
Below are the key aspects of our response, followed by a data summary:

Contact Tracing
Contact tracing is a key element to controlling an infectious disease outbreak. However, it becomes less effective as the number of contacts per case increases, and as the public perceives lower risk and does not adhere to quarantine recommendations. Since going to yellow, we have increased our number of contacts/case from approximately 5 to over 20. For contact tracing to be effective as a tool to stopping the spread of COVID-19, it needs to be paired with polices that limit the number of close contacts per person. We are exceeding our capacity to effectively and efficiently conduct contact tracing due to the surge in cases and number of contacts per case.

Testing
We need to continue our ability to test everyone who needs a COVID-19 test: close contacts, symptomatic, high risk settings. We must prioritize testing for people who are sick or are part of outbreaks. Speed is critical in identifying these people and baseline testing distracts public health and testing resources.

Hospital Utilization
We have heard from the UHA, UofU, and IHC that hospitals are going to exceed their capacity to care for individuals within the next 4-8 weeks. The metrics on DOMO are only part of the hospital capacity. We must consider staffing, ECMO, and beds for severe cases. Focusing on tertiary care hospitals is crucial. Once we run out of beds at tertiary care hospitals on the Wasatch Front, there is no state ability to care for the critically ill. Maintaining the ability to stand up the alternate care facility will be essential as cases continue to increase.

Protect those at high risk for severe disease
High risk individuals get COVID-19 from low risk individuals. The higher the number of cases in our state, the more likely high risk individuals will get exposed to COVID-19. We must continue our efforts to specifically protect those at high risk for severe disease, while prioritizing policies and interventions that drive down overall transmission.

Protect those at high risk for transmission
We know certain environments are more conducive to COVID-19 spread: crowded, indoors, for a prolonged period of time. We must continue to work with employers in these environments to put procedures in place and engineer the workspace to limit spread. We also need to work with employers to ensure their employees have the ability to quarantine and isolate when needed through paid sick leave and worker protections.

Messaging/Communications
The public equates the color-coded phased guidelines with risk of COVID-19 spread. We must be clear that the color equates with the economic restrictions in place. And that the risk of COVID-19 spread is higher as the restrictions are lower.

And like a light-switch, it turned back on. It’s as if people had forgotten why they spent the last six weeks in quarantine.

It’s crazy out there today.

Parking lots crowded. No social distancing.

Trailheads packed. No social distancing.

Herds of teenagers walking together three inches apart. No social distancing.

Soccer practices going on. I’d like to say ‘no social distancing’, but seriously… WTF?

The nuance appears to be lost on many people. So, let’s write down a date three to four weeks from now. Let’s go with May 24th to June 1. If we see a spike in Covid-19 cases at that point, we can conclude that our leaders screwed-up. Yeah, there are financial pressures, but we’re playing the long game here.

That said, perhaps case numbers won’t accelerate at that point. If so, maybe social distancing isn’t so important anymore, and we can go back to licking the handrails at Redstone 8.

If I had to bet, I’d bet on the former. Just like the Powder Buoy in the winter, seeing what happened today tells me a storm is coming in a few weeks.

Ding-dong the Witch is dead.
Which old Witch?
The Covid Witch
Let’s open up and ring the bells out
Let them know the Covid witch is dead!

How exciting. First, the Governor told me everything was OK and I didn’t need to worry about that pesky corona virus, and now the Summit County Council has voted unanimously to tell me that I need to get out and congregate, shop, and spend money again.

I was really feeling bad for Summit County. They were in the hole for like $10 million dollars. Was that round-about at Jeremy Ranch actually going to get finished this decade? Now my prayers have been answered. With Summit County’s new order, it frees up people from Utah County to come to Park City and tourists from around the world to bring their money and everything else into our fair corner of the world.

Better yet, Thursday the county released a 56-page health order telling local businesses on how to act when they open up less than 18 hours later. I mean, usually, I would recommend some sort of forethought and planning, but I know we need the money. So, bring ’em in.

Just to be clear, I have watched a lot of Kitchen Nightmares with Gordon Ramsey and the number one criticism by Gordon is that a restaurant shouldn’t stack the raw bacon on top of the lettuce (who knew?). I totally get that given the health order that every restaurant in town will be able to guarantee the following:

• Cleaning supplies must be single use (paper towels, disposable mop heads, etc.) or laundered between every use (dishtowels, mop heads, etc.).
• Hand sanitizer will be available immediately outside of bathrooms.
• Restaurants, Food Service, Food Trucks, Coffee Shops, Bars, C-stores, and Taverns, including lobbies and waiting areas, must close for cleaning in the morning, between shifts (or every four (4) hours), and evening. Cleaning and disinfecting includes all high-traffic areas, tables, chairs, door handles, phones, floors, restrooms, and any high-touch surfaces.
• Staff who handle cash payments will not be involved in the preparation, handling, or delivery of food.
• Staff must clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces. More specifically, staff must ensure that surfaces, table tops, and areas that are used and touched often are cleaned and sanitized between use by members, guest, patrons and customers.
• Employee Screening will include taking the temperatures of all employees.
• Limit tables to groups of six (6) (unless members of the same household). Adjacent booths can be occupied if there is a minimum 5-foot (measured from the seat) effective barrier between booths. If a 5-foot barrier is absent, booths may be occupied if every other booth is skipped.
• Small private events of twenty (20) people or less with reservations can only be accommodated by establishing a minimum 10-foot distance (or physical barrier) between the group and general public.
• Maintain at least six (6) feet between seated customer groups, whether indoors or outdoors. Either move tables or mark off tables not to be used.
• In waiting areas, a 6-foot distance must be maintained between parties or household groups, whether indoor or outdoor. Waiting areas will have floor markers to indicate proper spacing. Where 6-foot distance cannot be maintained, indoor group waiting areas are prohibited. Weather permitting, food establishments may use outdoor waiting areas with signs and other reminders for groups to maintain 6-foot social distancing. Consider using call-ahead or reservation systems to minimize wait times and stagger arrivals.
• Upon entry, hosts point customers to signage that includes the following information: Remind individuals from separate parties to stand at least six (6) feet apart.
• When possible, hosts should open doors for customers to help prevent congregating of customers at the entrance, show required signage, and explain operating practices.
• Employees who interact with customers or ready- to-eat foods must wear nonsurgical masks or face coverings at all times and perform hand hygiene between interactions with each table.
• Do not place utensils on table until customer is seated.
• Staff will avoid touching items that have been placed on the table (menus, plates, utensils, pens, cups, etc.).
• All customer tables and chairs must be disinfected between each customer or group. A dedicated staff member (not a server or other food handler) must clear and disinfect tables. Do not place tableware until customers are seated. Disposable single-use menus are strongly encouraged. If used, permanent menus must be disinfected after each use.oClose restaurant for cleaning and disinfecting in the morning, afternoon, and evening. Cleaning and disinfecting includes all tables, chairs, door handles, floors, bathrooms, and any high-touch surfaces.
• Staff must use gloves when handling ready-to-eat foods (including ice). Gloves are not required when handling foods that have yet to be cooked.
• Playgrounds inside or outside of restaurants will remain closed.
• Buffet and self-serve restaurants will provide utensils, cups, plates and other service items only from the counter where food is ordered. None of these items will be accessible to the public. Buffet style restaurants will provide servers who will serve the meals from buffet to limit exposure. Customers will not be allowed within six (6) feet of the food serving area. Floor must be marked or barriers provided.
• All shared outside dining areas will remain closed.
• Customers at a restaurant bar must not be seated within six ( 6) feet of other customers, nor any taps, food, clean glasses, or the bartender work area (“the well”). Seats and stools in this area must be removed or unoccupied at all times if this 6-foot requirement cannot be met.
• Condiments must not be kept on tables, but rather given to guests upon request. Condiment containers must be disinfected after each use. Self-serve condiment stations must be monitored and disinfected at least every thirty (30) minutes.
• Self-serve drink stations must be monitored and sanitized at least every thirty (30) minutes, especially surfaces where customers touch. Cups, lids, and straws must be given to customers by food employees. Individuals may not bring their own reusable items (mugs, cups). Single-use items (including to-go boxes, pizza boxes, paper cups, and any other paper product that touches food) should be treated like ready-to-eat food and therefore should not be handled with bare hands by employees.
• Disinfectants/sanitizers effective against SARS-CoV-2 virus must be available. Chlorine bleach at 100-200ppm is recommended. Use disposable cleaning supplies if possible (towels, mop heads, etc.). Other supplies must be laundered for use each day.
• Employees in kitchen areas should practice social distancing whenever possible. Workstations should be arranged so that employees do not face one another. Non-surgical masks or face coverings are encouraged and training provided on the how to appropriately wear them. Whenever possible, staff should be separated into cohorts to minimize interaction between groups. All existing food regulations still apply.
• Hand sanitizer must be available at all customer entrances and outside of public restrooms. Hand sanitizer must not replace hand washing by food handlers.oRestaurants will not operate if PPE, EPA- approved disinfectants and sanitizer, soaps, and other necessary cleaning supplies are not available.

Even if your favorite restaurant doesn’t understand the nuance of stacking raw pork on lettuce, the restaurant who is preparing your food is definitely going to incorporate those 34 tenants into their business practices by tomorrow. Dine-assured. Hell, they’ve had 18 hours.

Don’t worry though. There is strict enforcement coming tomorrow. According to the county, “The County Sheriff and Chiefs of Police within the County are directed to ensure compliance with and enforce this Order. Notwithstanding such, the purpose of this Order is to protect individuals’ health and not to hold them criminally liable. Discretion will be used in the citing and prosecution of violations of this Order.” Nothing gives me more faith in the law than when we have some good “Discretions” and “notwithstandings” in the order.

Restaurants are one thing, but what I’m really looking forward to is all the people from the Salt Lake Valley coming up to use our trails. While our Corona-counts started out big, we are having many fewer cases here. We can change that! I welcome all the people from Utah county who have not been practicing social distancing into our community. There’s nothing like a unanimous vote from your county’s leaders to say, “We welcome you and your money, even if you have Ebola.”

All that said, what I am looking forward to even more than Ebola is the Park City Fourth of July Parade. Where else can I get sweat on by strangers who are standing less than 1/2 inch away from me? Even better, most of those people are from Utah county!!! MMMM. Money.

Given the likely increases in Covid-19 (or is it 20 by now?) from these actions, my kids won’t be able to go to school next fall. What a blessing. I’ll be able to part-time teach them at home far better than any professional who went to 4-8 years of college and/or grad school, and who has taught for 10 years, ever could.

Finally, I am thankful for Sundance, or the lack-there-of. It’s a great idea to open our county up in the shoulder season. That way, this summer we can bring in all sorts of infections. Then right about November, the Sundance Institute can conclude that it’s too dangerous to hold a film festival in Park City in January. Just think about how little traffic we will have and how empty the wine store will be!

Good times indeed! I’m am just so excited to see how this all works out and how much money we can make! What could possibly go wrong?

PSA: All the above joking aside, nothing has changed with the corona virus because five members of the Summit County Council had a vote. There is no cure. There is no vaccine. You’ve heard about “flattening the curve.” That is just an attempt to make sure we have enough hospital beds and ventilators available for those that get sick. It has little to do with your chance of getting the disease — or its impacts.

I believe announcing that we are opening the county is a mistake. I do understand that the pandemic has negatively impacted friends and local businesses. It sucks. How do they survive without customers? My fear is that opening too soon is the death knell. If Christmas and then Sundance is canceled, it will be far worse. My fear is that our actions today will contribute to that outcome, negatively.

Here’s hoping we get lucky.