A few days I posted entitled The Canaries in the Coal Mine are Telling Us To Take Notice indicating that we may be in for a rough economic patch ahead. From the responses in comments, via email, and in stores around down I can tell FEW PEOPLE share my view. It was almost as if I posted that “Your kid will never play for the Black Diamond Soccer Club.”
The truth is I don’t have a crystal ball. I don’t have an economics degree from Princeton. I don’t host Mad Money with Jim Cramer. I only report what I see and what I hear from people.
So, I very well may be wrong. I appreciate the respectful comments I have received from people trying to educate (me and) our community (even if they disagree with my point of view). There are definitely people smarter than me saying there is nothing to worry about.
I tend to think that the wealth effect from a down stock market will impact Park City (just like it did when the stock market rocketed from 2009). I think low oil prices will cause further pressure on the U.S. economy. I think the strong U.S. dollar will cause fewer tourists to come to Park City. I think the drop in the Chinese Stock market (Down 16% YTD) and economy will both decrease visitors from Asia and Australia/New Zealand.
If interest rates rise four times this year as the Federal Reserve has stated they will do, that will put pressure on what people can pay for houses. If the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates four times this year, it will be because the economy is weaker than expected.
Again, I could be wrong. I very well may be. Many people seem to think so.
Let’s check back in during January 2017 and see how our community is doing. If our economy is booming, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong.