One of the arguments the School District’s Master Planning Committee likes to make is that construction cots are rising by 5% per year. So, we better build lots of stuff now because it will cost more to do so later.
While costs are rising, that’s generally ALWAYS been true. Take a look at the Turner Non Residential Building Cost Index since 1997 shown below. You’ll see that 2014’s cost increase of 4.4% is in line with most years historically. It appears that 2015 will be in the same ballpark.
So, is there any real rush to build this because costs are going up? It doesn’t look like any more urgency than any other time. You might also wonder that if 2009/2010’s decreases are any indicator of what happens to costs during a recession, why wouldn’t we wait for that type of period. We are overdue for a recession, after all. Finally, the longer we wait, the more home values will likely have risen, which should mean more money in the school’s bank and a smaller bond.
It seems like there is no reason to rush into building for the sake of forgoing future costs. If we wait a bit, it may even cost a little less.
Instead, the Master Planning Committee seems to be pushing more fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
“You better buy that used car today, ’cause prices are going up next week!”