in Weather
What Will Our Winters Look Like in 2100
One of the things I find interesting is that people will often quote forecasted growth numbers in order to tell us how overcrowded Park City will be by 2060. At the same time they don’t seem to account for forecasted temperature changes. While no one knows for sure what will happen with either, if we are going to rely on one forecast by experts, then we should probably at least look at what experts are saying on the other.
With that in mind, here is what an “official” estimate of temperature looks like for Salt Lake for the year 2100.
Winter
Summer
Park City is usually about 10 degrees cooler than SLC, so it will likely be a little cooler here in both the winter and summer than is forecasted for Salt Lake City. However, I don’t see how a ski industry would survive temperatures in 2100 that average 10 degrees more than now (i.e. could you run a ski resort in the Salt Lake Valley today?). Likewise, our summers would average about 88 degrees.
As mother nature usually eventually does, it looks like given enough time she make take care of our transportation issues herself.
If you’d like to view interactive versions of the map, they can be found here (summer/winter)
“Park City to SLC Connect” Bus Ridership Up 45% in Four Years
The Salt Lake Tribune has a glowing article about the Salt Lake to Park City Connect Bus service. When the service began four years ago, it had ridership of 33,000 people per year. That has grown to over 45,000 people in 2015. This growth is attributed to lowering fares by a $1 ($4.50 now versus $5.50 originally) and modifying the schedule.
I have to admit that I was wrong about the bus. I never thought it would make it to year 2 due to cost and travel time; yet, the service has persisted.
That said, why should you care about a bus running up and down Parley’s? According to the most recent information I could find, Park City and Summit County contribute $475,000 a year to make this bus run (UTA contributes $170,000). Depending on your perspective, that could be money well spent or it could be better used for transportation alternatives in Summit County (i.e. buses into neighborhoods, etc.).
While 45,000 rises sounds like a lot, this accounts to about 13 people per bus. Also keep in mind, that last year, Park City cited that there was often over 10,000 riders PER DAY on its buses. So, in the scheme of things the PC SLC Connect bus isn’t taking too many cars off the road (120+ car a day?). That said, as for emissions, studies show a bus only needs to carry 8 people to be more efficient than individual cars.
I guess the real question is could our community use the $475,000 a year to achieve greater results?
in Economy
Summit County Has Recovered Economically from the Great Recession Better Than Most Counties
The National Association of Counties has published their County Economies 2015 Opportunities and Challenges overview. The report looks at unemployment rates, GDP Expansion, wages, and productivity for each of the 3,069 counties in the United States. Specifically it looks at whether jobs, unemployment, GDP, and Home prices have recovered since the great recession. Only 214 counties improved on all four measures. Summit County recovered to pre-recession levels on three of the four measures (jobs, GDP, and home prices), which puts us in the top 30% of all counties.
It’s also interesting comparing us to surrounding counties. We did better in wage growth but worse in GDP recovery in the past couple of years.
It’s an interesting read if you are in to that sort of thing. You can click on any county in each map and get more information.
Here is an overview from the report:
The Mountain Accord Still Makes Me Shake My Head Sometimes
I’ve heard through the grapevine that the Mountain Accord process appears to be headed in the right direction. I’m still filing that in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” folder. That said, sometimes you have to trust people in the know that say things are getting better with the organization.
Then you get an email from Mountain Accord and it makes you shake your head. Case in point is an email that was delivered yesterday talking about POW Day (Protect our Winters), UTA providing free bus service up Little Cottonwood Canyon, and Mountain Accord donating money to Protect our winters for each bus rider. That was the top of the email. Here is how it ended:
“ Mountain Accord is making critical decisions and implementing solutions to preserve the Central Wasatch Range and ensure its long-term vitality. The future promises more traffic congestion and the continued exclusive reliance on private automobiles to access the Central Wasatch is a grave threat. Transit that serves all populations, in all seasons is a goal of Mountain Accord. Building a sustainable transit network that connects to existing transit on both the Wasatch Front and Back is essential as is reducing the ease of private car use,through carpool incentives, fees, paid parking at resorts and other solutions[/su_highlight].”
First, maybe I’m naive, but I didn’t realize Mountain Accord “is making critical decisions and implementing solutions.” I tend to like the fact that our elected bodies like the city and county council make decisions and work with our local governments to implement those solutions. I don’t really like some Executive Board, made up of hand picked individuals (with a couple representatives from the Park City area), deciding on things and implementing them.
Perhaps the email just suffered from a little too much hubris or perhaps the Mountain Accord Executive Board really views it that way.
I’m guess I’m OK if the decisions they want to implement are of the “giving $1 to a charity for every bus rider” variety. I’ll be much less enthused if they are the ones deciding on how transportation is implemented in Summit County.
Planning on Skiing Alta or Snowbird Tomorrow (1/13)? Ride the Bus for Free.
UTA is offering free bus service up Little Cottonwood Canyon on Wednesday 1/13. In addition, for every person riding the bus or carpool (4 people per car), Mountain Accord will donate $1 to an organization called Protect Our Winters (POW).
If you are headed up you may want to give the bus a try and see what you think.
More details can be found here.
PSA: Give Yourself Plenty of Time in Evanston
If you are one of the hundreds thousands of Utahns headed up to Wyoming to pick some numbers in the hopes of becoming Park City’s first ninth billionaire, give yourself some extra time (or go really early). It is like the Sundance Film Festival hit our poor friends to the north. Reports are there are lines 50-100 people deep to buy tickets.
Just crazy.
That said, if you choose to participate… good luck… but not not TOO MUCH luck. We may be playing too.
Note: this post is not an advertisement or solicitation for participation in any gambling, lottery, game of chance, etc. That would be a class B Misdemeanor in Utah… so like we said above, please don’t play… we’d hate to share our winnings and we think we have great odds of winning at only 293,000,000 to 1.
in Housing
East Creek Ranch Is Better Than Thought
We’ve poked a little fun at East Creek Ranch over the years… from one of their houses in an ad looking like a polygamist compound to questioning the location. This weekend, I had an opportunity to drive around their site that now sports 10-20 homes (in the open area just west of Bells’ gas station).
While I’m not sure I would say the home quality always “looks” like a $700K+ home, I suppose that’s in the eye of the beholder. What I would say is that I’m somewhat shocked by how quiet it was during my visit. I expected the roar of the freeway to make it almost intolerable. That wasn’t the case at all. Perhaps at a different time, noise would increase but there was a steady stream of traffic while I was there and it was a low buzz at worst.
It may be because there is no mountain behind the area to block the sound in and the fact that the houses are a little below the freeway probably helps. Of course, your tastes may vary. So, if you are looking there, please make up your own mind.
All that said, I can envision a time when the area is filled with houses, and families with little kids race between them. Once it’s built out, it very much seems like it could be another area like Silver Summit (Foxcrest Dr, Sagebrook, etc.) where those of us who work here can also live and raise a family. That’s probably not a bad thing.
Anyone Want to Bet What the Kimball Junction Transit Center will Ultimately Cost?
Sometimes when I’m following news events around Park City, it reminds me of the book 1984. A key theme is that “We have always been at war with Eastasia” until they are no longer at war with Eastasia and then the statement becomes, “We have always been at war with Eurasia.” No one stops to ask the question, “Huh? How did that change happen?” I suppose that’s one of Orwell’s points.
I feel that way with the Transit Center that’s about to be built behind the library in Kimball Junction. The Transit Center will in effect be a really nice bus stop that is supposed to improve the efficiency of the entire Park City bus system by providing a location where riders can switch buses to get to their destinations more easily.
So, please let me take you through the last year, that relates to the Kimball Junction Transit Center, through a few Park Record quotes:
Summit County Council green lights transit center at Kimball Junction (2/13/2015)
“Park City Transit was recently awarded a $1.7 million grant from the Federal Transit Administration for the construction of the $2.4 million project. The County Council contributed $500,000 and Park City Transit provided $95,000.”
Kimball Junction transit center project rolling along (July 7, 2015)
“The Federal Transit Administration awarded Park City Transit a $1.7 million grant last year for the estimated $2.4 million project. Summit County contributed $500,000 and Park City Transit provided $95,000, leaving an approximate $105,000 deficit.”
Kimball Junction Transit Center project gains ground (January 8, 2016)
“The Federal Transit Administration awarded Park City Transit a $1.7 million grant last year for the project, which is estimated to cost slightly more than $3 million. Summit County has contributed $900,000 and Park City Transit provided $95,000. Park City Municipal is administering the request for qualifications because it is the Federal Transit authority grantee, Radke said, before adding that it is “still a county project.”
It’s funny what happens over the course of eleven months. We start with February 2015 where the center will cost $2.4 million, Summit County will contribute $500K, Park City pitches in $95K, and Orrin Hatch the federal government provides a grant of $1.7MM.
Then in July 2015, the Park Record points out there is actually a deficit of $105K in the plan… that someone will need to find in order to build this transit center. Fair enough. That deficit was probably always there but just wasn’t pointed out.
Fast forward to this weekend, when the Park Record tells us that Summit County is now chipping in $900K instead of $500K, which is an 80% increase. We also learn that the entire project will cost more than $3MM versus the $2.4MM previously stated. That would be at least a 25% increase in overall cost versus what we were initially told.
If that wasn’t bad enough, it looks like still more money will have to be “found.” Using our public school math skills, we can try to figure out whether we have budgeted enough money for the project. So, we need a little over $3MM dollars. Let’s call it $3.1MM. What do we have allocated?
1,700,000 (Federal Grant)
+ 900,000 (Summit County)
+ 95,000 (Park City)
_____________________
$ 2,695,000 (Total)
Again, I’m a product of public school, but $2.7 million seems to be less than the $3.1 million required to build the transit center. So, it is likely someone will have to come up with an even additional $400,000 difference. Anyone want to guess who will be paying that additional money?
Yes, it will be you and me. That will likely bring Summit County’s total bill to $1.3 million, if it stays on budget once building starts.
Of course, that investment of $1.3 million may be worth it, should it take a substantial number of cars off the road. However, the question I continually ask is, even if the bus system gets slightly more efficient, will people get out of their cars and ride a bus. I may be proven wrong but I think that is highly unlikely.
This project seems like a last-grasp at a solution to make our buses work better. Perhaps our local governments have run out of ideas.
We’ve heard people don’t currently take buses because it takes three times as long as driving (on an average day). So, this idea gets introduced to put in place a transit center, and make buses “more efficient.” I suppose if this transit center let’s me get to the Canyons to ski in 20 minutes (total time from leaving my house) instead of the 15 minutes I may give it a try. I bet my wife would take the bus if she could leave our house in Jeremy and be to work in Prospector within 35 minutes. Right now, it usually takes about 20-25 minutes via car.
I frankly just don’t see it.
Last February, this just seemed like wasted money. Now, it just seems like more wasted money. I hope I’m wrong. We all want to get where we are going faster and we want our tax dollars used well. I’m frankly not sure whether this will do either.
That said, we’ll be tracking bus riding numbers. If this transit center equates to vastly improved ridership, we’ll let you know. Likewise, if it doesn’t, we’ll let you know that too.
in Dogs
Oh the Carnage!
Only one day of off-leash dogs being legal in Round Valley and the death and destruction has already started. We found this skull on the trail. My 3 year old and I debated whether it was dinosaur or human…
in Growth
Are People Moving In Or Out of Utah?
One of the trends I try to follow is whether people are moving to Utah or whether they are leaving. This is important because it helps to tell us about what kind of growth we’ll see in Summit County. If more people are migrating to Utah, this puts more pressure on us here around Park City, because it is a desirable place to live.
Of course, it’s not the only variable to take into account. There are the number of births, which Utah is generally good at (Park City less so) and people who migrate here from in-state. Take all three and you have a good idea of growth pressure on our area.
Each year, United Van Lines publishes a migration study between states. This is helpful because while the government provides good population given census data, other years are just estimates. The United Van Lines study also provides data on what demographics are moving, which is helpful. So, what does Utah migration look like in 2015, according to United Van Lines Data? In the graphics below, you’ll see that the moving company’s data shows people are leaving Utah.
Below we show the United Van Lines map and the reasons its customers say they are leaving. If you are interested, click this link and you can see how this has changed over the years. It’s pretty interesting to see the people moving in after the Olympics.
Of course, this is one small subset of data. So, that has to be factored in. It also does not account for birth/deaths and in-state migration. However, it does provide some interesting information.
Parkrag
We believe in citizen journalism. We believe there are stories to tell that can help to shape our community for the better. We believe tomorrow's Park City can be better than today's.