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Sheriff’s Office Has an Opportunity to Improve Public Relations

I grew up outside of Kansas City in the 1980’s. The Kansas City police had a tough job as violent crime was beginning to rise to a point where it would eventually become the murder capital of the country. The cops seemed big, tough, and in total control. Yet, we loved running into a policeman at the supermarket or QuikTrip. Why? They always carried Chiefs football trading cards and loved handing them out with a big smile. It was that simple.

Flash forward to today’s Summit County and Park City. When I moved here a few years back, a friend warned me about the police and said you have to be careful. He told me stories that he was often pulled over “because he looked hispanic”. He said his younger friends in high school were continually pulled over for “no reason”. KPCW’s Leslie Thatcher even questioned Sheriff candidate, and current deputy, Justin Martinez about kids getting pulled over for a “dim license plate lights”. While it may not be a common occurrence and may even be overblown, it doesn’t seem to be an isolated incident and it’s definitely in the public’s psyche.

Across the country the reputation and opinion about police forces are taking hits. Whether it’s the situation in Ferguson Missouri, where an unarmed 18-year old was killed by police, or whether it’s the general militarization of the police across the country, police often don’t have the best name anymore.

Even here, in November of 2013, we had our own version of this when the Summit County Sheriff’s office called in Park City Police, the Wasatch Sheriff, and the Utah Highway patrol to break up an underage party. While there is little doubt the party should have been broken up, the show of force seemed way over the top to many community members. A guest editorial in the Park Record compared the tactics used to Storm Troopers. While Sheriff Edmunds and other community members have different opinions on this, the accusations at best do nothing to make the community feel better about our sheriff and police and at worse cement the negative opinion in many people’s minds.

While Sheriff Edmunds has done many good things for our community, the upcoming election offers the chance for a new beginning in the Sheriff office’s interaction with the community. During Justin Martinez’s interview with KPCW he even said that he would like to be able to put his own stamp on things. I’m sure Kris Hendricksen, his opponent, feels the same way.

With that in mind, ditch the black uniforms (they do cause people to be more aggressive and distrust the police). Phase out the Black SUV’s. Think carefully before you decide you need to profile someone. Say hi to everyone. Simply, be more Andy Griffith than Dirty Harry.

A few weeks back, my wife was sitting with our 2 year old in front of the Library. My two year old smiled and stared intently as a sheriff’s deputy walked by. A minute later the deputy walked back by and glanced at my wife and son. He didn’t say a word, he didn’t smile, he just kept walking. Perhaps he was busy and didn’t have time. But if he would have stopped, bent down, and shook my kids hands to introduce himself, my son would still be talking about it today. A little more of that simple, genuine kindness would go a long way to changing impressions.

Not all Summit County Population Forecasts Agree and We Need to Consider That When Making Plans

If you follow the Wasatch Mountain Accord, read about local government meetings, or listen to the radio you probably know that the population of Summit County is estimated to grow by over 143% to 88,000 residents by 2050. Just this morning KPCW’s Leslie Thatcher mentioned it again during an interview with Dave Ure. This 143% number is important because it forms the basis for all sort of regional planning like economic development, transportation management, water management, etc. It has become the defacto statistic relied on by many to make decisions.

Yet, not everyone agrees with that forecast. Since it is so heavily used, it’s important to understand where the number comes from, what it’s based on, and what opposing models show.

In 2012 the Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) released reports forecasting population growth through 2050. It shows huge growth for the state overall and Summit County as well. Here are the overall projections:

gombpopforecast2012

 

It makes sense for this report to be used officially, since it came from the Governor’s Office. It also makes sense why people would want to use this report because it justifies growth, development, and spending…which everyone from planners, to builders, to developers like. If huge growth is coming, then something must be done (i.e. planned or built) to solve it.

Yet, The Utah Foundation, an independent public group, and who’s contributors include Rio Tinto, Love Communications, George S. and Dolores Eccles Foundation, Westminster College, and IHC among others indicate that this isn’t the only forecast. They state, “There are various entities that produce population projections – universities, private firms, metropolitan planning organizations, and governments to name a few. The process each firm uses to create projections is unique to the firm. However, the economic climate is a major variable in all of the analyses. Job growth is a leading cause of in-migration and to retain population in Utah and will in turn have an impact on overall population growth.”

With that in mind, let’s look at two different forecasts, the GOMB model and the Regional Economic Models Inc (REMI) model. GOMB predicts by 2040 Utah will have an additional 2 million people. REMI appears to predict an increase of 1.3 million people. In fact, GOMB’s estimates are the highest of any of the models in a recent Utah Foundation report:.

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While many would argue that 1.3 million is still significant growth, and it is, it is 35% lower growth than the GOMB estimate. This would indicate Summit County’s population would be at about 69,000 instead of near 90,000 in 2050.

The other different between the two models is the GOMB model shows almost straight-line growth of population based on new births and net migration of people into the state. However, REMI shows a net migration out of the state between 2020 and 2040 (and then a net migration back in after that). In many ways, having a net outflow at some point seems more realistic than constant growth to the moon, as represented in the GOMB analysis.

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It is important to know the source of our numbers when making crucial decisions that impact the citizens of Park City and Summit County. While it is likely growth will continue, we should first agree,that we agree, on the baseline assumptions that drive everything else.

The Governor’s numbers are “official” but they are also the highest of any forecast. They have been based on huge net migration and economic growth that has occurred since the Olympics in 2002. They forecast that this will continue unabated. Just like home prices in 2007, this may not be the case.

Note: Unless otherwise specified all graphs used in this post can be found in Utah Foundation report mentioned above.

Transportation Whiteboards and Spreadsheet of Vote Count

Summit County and Park City held a transportation meeting on Tuesday where the public offered input on various concepts to help reduce transportation issues. The public was able to vote on which issues they agreed with (green dots) or disagreed with (red dots). If anyone is interested in what the original whiteboards look like and/or a spreadsheet of the transportation counts, see below..

Click here for vote tally spreadsheet:Vote Tally for Summit Transportation Concepts

Below are the whiteboards:

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School District Discussion on Budget and Future

We have been as hard on the Park City School District related to financial matters. They are in a very complex spot that is going to require some out of the box thinking. However, the budget discussion below shows promise. They discuss everything from the impact of Vail, to second homes, to student numbers.

If you are interested in the financial situation of the district, skip to 43:07 in the video for the beginning of an hour long discussion related to the budget:

We saw Congressman Rob Bishop Was in Town and Decided to Check Out his Voting Record

The Park Record told us that Congressman Rob Bishop had come to town and talked ISIL, the military, and other topics. We really didn’t know how he voted on various topics so we looked into it further and Open Congress provided us all the information we needed. He votes with his party 95% of the time and abstains the other 5%.

Does any group (i.e. Democrats or Republicans) get it 100% right? And when they don’t is it better to tell people what you think or just abstain?

The problem is that if someone votes with the party ALL THE TIME, anyone could do that. You could do it. I could do it. Frankly, my friend Jason’s border collie could press the button with the treat next to it every time.

It’s embarrassing for not only Bishop but for Utah.

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Note: Our disgust for how Rob Bishop votes doesn’t mean we endorse Donna McAleer. We don’t endorse. That’s so 1968. Every Summit County resident should vote how they wish but also understand they deserve the government they get.

How Our Community Voted on Various Transportation Ideas During the Basin Transportation Meeting

During last night’s Snyderville Basin Transportation meeting, the organizers placed whiteboards with various concepts designed to better understand how the public feels about potential solutions to Basin traffic problems. Each of the 120+ attendees had the chance to put a green sticker next to a concept they agreed with or a red sticker next to ones they disagreed with.

This is important because our elected officials and city/county employees will use this information to prioritize which transportation solutions should be pursued.

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Note: We created this list from counting stickers. There were a lot of stickers and we did our best. However, all results may not be exact.

If you build it, they will come… another way for the Park City School District to go broke

During today’s Local News Hour with Leslie Thatcher on KPCW, School Board President Moe Hickey brought up the need for an additional elementary school.

If at some point you look at our growth patterns right now and say Trailside is at capacity, Parleys is at capacity, Jeremy is getting close to capacity. Right now we can handle what we have, but and this is where it gets tricky with an elementary school. If you start seeing more and more students come in, which we’ve seen the last two years…when do you start constructing an elementary school?

-Moe Hickey, Park City School Board President

Mr Hickey has a good point. If Park City Schools were in an ordinary situation and this was a perfect world, an estimate about future growth would be performed, and if additional capacity was needed, schools would be constructed. However, the current situation in Park City is not normal.

Just a few short weeks ago The Park City School District voted to raise property taxes due to a shortfall in funds. The increase was partially attributed to students from other districts coming to Park City. It was stated during those meetings that our schools have to take students as long as there is capacity. It was also stated that our school district only receives about $3,000 from the state for each out of district student, while it costs over $10,0000 per year to educate them. So it costs tax payers $7,000 extra for every student who doesn’t even live here, who attends our schools, and most importantly pays no property tax.

So as we approach capacity in our elementary schools, do we celebrate that as a way to stop the bleeding and the continual tax increases to cover out of district students? No, we start planning how to increase capacity so we can take more out of districts students, lose even more money, and cause property taxes to rise further.

The implications of this are huge for everyone. For residents, it likely means higher property taxes. For teachers, it likely means that raises will be less during the next negotiations. For the school district, they edge every closer to the maximum amount they will be able to tax and get ever closer to that cliff.

It’s almost as if the whole long term financial situation isn’t even being considered. While out of district students are only one component of the current problem, it is significant. Increasing capacity through another school will only exacerbate it. It’s frankly baffling.

More Info On Skiing Industry Since 2010

Yesterday we took a look at visitor nights in Park City.  It showed that since 2010, visitor nights were down in December, February, March, and April.

Today, we look at skier days in Park City since 2010.

Again, skier days are down about 4.5% since 2010. We are not exactly sure how this jibes with what we’ve heard from local resorts such as Deer Valley where we believe we heard that 2013 ranked as one of their best years ever.

Perhaps if the moisture keeps up and turns to a big snow year, we can turn this trend around.

Is Park City’s Ski Industry Slowing Down?

We know what you are thinking. Vail is coming into Park City and that means ski growth is going through the roof. They don’t make stupid investments! Remember, though, Vail is really a development company that runs some mountains. So, when we looked at this chart of Park City visitor nights by month (2010-present), it was a little bit shocking.

Sundance Up. Check!

Summer Up. Check!

Winter… Flat to Down. UHHH?

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Source: Snyderville Basin Long Range Transportation Plan 2014

There are other ways of looking at how the ski industry is doing and they may tell another story; however, seeing that December, February, March, and April hotel nights are down from 2010 (the peak of the Great Recession) gives us pause.